A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
